Introduction
The local Government Area (LGA) that is selected for the analysis of the visitor economy is Newcastle (NSW, Australia). The continued development of the tourism sector gives rise to several impacts that range from the economic, and environmental to social-cultural aspects in the Newcastle area over the years.
Visitor Economy Risk Analysis
The tourism industry operates in a very competitive world with many industries involved being interdependent (Holloway & Humphreys 2019). As a result, it is always undergoing changes, more especially and particularly susceptible to unpredictable crises. Health risks such as viral pandemics and epidemics, natural disasters such as earthquakes and flooding, political instability, and terrorist attacks are all examples of crises. Crises may result in a long-term negative effect on a destination’s popularity as well as the number of visitors it attracts (Camilleri, 2018).). In order to mitigate the negative impacts and effects of a crisis on the visitor economy, it is important to plan for it and learn how to handle risk when one arises, as well as how to deal with problems that arise from unexpected events.
Epidemics and pandemics are the most likely risks that may influence the visitor economy on so many levels; according to the United Nations World Tourism Workforce (UNWTO), a viral pandemic could put close to one hundred million jobs at risk (Anon., 2020). Areas like Newcastle in Australia that depend on tourism will most likely feel the negative impact that results from the crisis (Dredge, 2017). The pandemic may have an out-of-proportion impact on programs requiring more physical contact, which is essential to the tourism sector in the Newcastle area. They will continue to suffer before people feel secure enough to travel in large groups again.
A viral pandemic may bring the industry to a standstill, as many regions might move to initiate a lockdown to prevent the virus from spreading further and worsening the situation. The lockdown prevents the movement of people in and out of the area, greatly affecting the local visitor’s economy in areas such as Newcastle (Behsudi, 2020). The viral pandemic poses a threat to the industry as it may take time to find a vaccine and a cure for some viruses, this implies that the lockdown will continue. Indicating that people cannot go out on tours in tourist-dependent areas such as the Newcastle area in Australia, greatly impacting their economic infrastructure.
It may take time to recover from the effects of the viral pandemic, but the effect on tourism-reliant economies would be much greater. Many areas will be more focused on how to entice tourists back while trying to prevent new disease outbreaks. The viral pandemic clearly highlights the importance of tourism to the economy of certain areas and as a means of reducing poverty for many individuals in many areas (Herman et al., 2017). In the tourism and travel industry, leisure travel will lead the way. Business travel, a major source of revenue for hotels and airlines, may undergo a permanent change or return in phases depending on proximity, the purpose for travel, and industry.
The return of tourism in many areas would most likely be based on a profoundly personal decision for many individuals, as they balance the risk of getting infected against the need to travel and tour destinations. A viral pandemic may impact tourism sectors in many a way that it may be difficult to recover, it is therefore important for regions that depend on tourism, such as Newcastle, to have a crisis management group to come up with risk management plans (Tourism Australia, 2020). A destination’s appeal and the amount of tourists it draws may suffer long-term consequences as a result of crises. It is crucial to prepare for a crisis, understand how to manage risk when it materializes, and learn how to address issues that result from unforeseen circumstances in order to lessen its detrimental effects on the tourism industry.
Visitor Economy Trends Analysis
Many minds work to decode industry trends in the tourism and hospitality industry, as well as in global business, in order to stay updated and make wise decisions. Trends have a long-term impact on things, and they have the potential to shift the focus or direction of industry and society in a completely different direction. The more complex the environment becomes, the more important it is for business leaders and decision-makers to use a system for trend analysis (Homrich et al., 2018). One trend that has a greater impact and influence on tourism in most areas over the next five years is the economic trend. There are so many economic unknowns in the tourism industry, as a result, several economic trends such as conscious consumerism and shifting emerging economies are monitored.
Tourism flows are largely determined by economic development. Increased outbound and domestic tourism will be supported by the world economy’s projected growth. Tourism is now regarded as a cost-effective commodity that can be enjoyed by anyone who wishes to partake in a variety of leisure activities. Economic policy and management have improved dramatically in recent years, laying the groundwork for future growth. Inflation rates have plummeted around the board (Nyorani, 2020). The elimination of unstable fixed exchange rate regimes in Asia and the establishment of the European Monetary Union would boost economic development.
Conscious Consumerism and Emerging Economies
Consumers who use their buying power to form the environment according to their values and beliefs, causing organizations to project a more ethical or responsible picture, are referred to as ethical consumers. Destinations and companies interested in tapping into this sector must be acutely aware of social and environmental problems, which may include anything from organic food to animal care and human rights (Dündar, 2017). The tourism industry should assume that the existing industrial model is not working and needs to be replaced, that understanding of the problems necessitates a new mindset, and that reform will come from the bottom up rather than from the top down.
Emerging economies grow at a fast rate with the aim of becoming the strongholds in the global market. The fast growth brought about tourists searching for new destinations to tour.
Conclusion
In conclusion, any area that is dependent on tourism should have risk management plans as a crisis may arise at any time. Their risk management group will be able to identify the risks before they turn into problems and suggest ways to handle them. Risks can be identified through constant communication and consultation with the organizations such as emergency service agencies, and brainstorming ideas among the risk management group and the stakeholders. The risk identification methods can be helpful when it comes to addressing potential threats. The tourism industry in areas such as Newcastle can make use of positive tourism trends such as leisure travel, experience travel, and transformative travel.
References
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Nyorani, C., 2020. 9 Tourism Trends That Will Shape the Travel Industry in 2020 and Beyond. Regiondo. Web.
Tourism Australia, 2020. don’t risk it! A guide to assist Regional Tourism Organizations to prepare, respond and recover from a crisis, s.l.: Australian Government Department of Energy and Tourism.
